Ο «Αρμαγεδδώνας» λέγεται… Deutsche Bank;

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Ίσως η πιο εντυπωσιακή δήλωση των τελευταίων ημερών, δηλωτική του μεγέθους του ευρωπαϊκού πολιτικού αδιεξόδου, είναι η δήλωση της κ. Μέρκελ ότι αποκλείεται bail-out, δηλαδή δημόσια ενίσχυση, της Deutsche Bank πριν από τις γερμανικές εκλογές! Εδώ οι ειδήσεις είναι δύο: Πρώτα απ’ όλα, η έμμεση παραδοχή ότι η κραταιά Deutsche Bank μπορεί να χρειαστεί κεφαλαιακή στήριξη! Δεύτερο, ότι ακόμη και αν χρειαστεί μια τέτοια στήριξη, το γερμανικό Δημόσιο θα την αρνηθεί! Που σημαίνει ότι θα αφήσει το γερμανικό τραπεζικό μεγαθήριο να ακολουθήσει τη μοίρα του bail-in, να πληρώσουν δηλαδή τα «ανοίγματα» της τράπεζας οι μέτοχοι, οι ομολογιούχοι και τελικά οι καταθέτες, με ανοιχτό τον κίνδυνο πρόκλησης ενός σαρωτικού τραπεζικού «Αρμαγεδδώνα»!

Μια τέτοια δήλωση είναι μεν εντυπωσιακή, δεν είναι όμως αδικαιολόγητη. Όπως έχουμε ξαναγράψει, η Deutsche Bank θεωρείται αυτή τη στιγμή ο πιο «τοξικός» από τους γίγαντες της παγκόσμιας τραπεζικής. Τους τελευταίους μήνες οι αρνητικές εξελίξεις και ειδήσεις για την τράπεζα είναι συχνές και επαναλαμβανόμενες, ενώ η μετοχή της θαλασσοδέρνεται στο χρηματιστήριο της Φρανκφούρτης έχον τας χάσει το 60% της αξίας της και βρίσκεται στα 10,710 ευρώ, παρασέρνοντας συχνά και τον δείκτη DAX. Η Lehman Brothers χρεοκόπησε με μόχλευση 1:32, ενώ η Deutsche Bank στέκεται ακόμη όρθια παρότι τρίτη στη σχετική ευρωπαϊκή λίστα με μόχλευση 1:105,29! Σύμφωνα με την εκτίμηση ρίσκου των stress tests για τις ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες στα τέλη Ιουλίου, η Deutsche Bank είναι δεύτερη στην ευρωπαϊκή λίστα με 52,99% – πρώτη είναι η μεγαλύτερη ιταλική τράπεζα UniCredit SpA με 61,51%.

Πίσω από αυτά τα προβλήματα, που δείχνουν ήδη μια τράπεζα στα όρια της κατάρρευσης, βρίσκεται μια «πυρηνική βόμβα» έκθεσης σε παράγωγα που προσεγγίζει τα 50 τρισεκατομμύρια δολάρια!!!

Η Deutsche Bank δεν κινδυνεύει μόνο η ίδια, αποτελεί κίνδυνο για το παγκόσμιο τραπεζικό σύστημα και κατ’ επέκταση για την παγκόσμια οικονομία.

Το πιο πρόσφατο «επεισόδιο» που αναζωπύρωσε τους φόβους και την αρνητική ειδησεογραφία για την τράπεζα, ήταν το πρόστιμο-«μαμούθ» που της επέβαλαν οι αμερικανικές αρχές, ύψους 14 δισ. δολαρίων, με την κατηγορία της χειραγώγησης. Το πρόστιμο είναι υπερδιπλάσιο από τις προβλέψεις της τράπεζας για «νομικό κόστος» (προφανώς κάτι… ήξερε για τις ατασθαλίες τύπου χειραγώγησης…). Με τις παρούσες συνθήκες πτώσης της κερδοφορίας και καταβαράθρωσης της μετοχής της, αυτό σημαίνει ότι για να αποφύγει μια αποτυχημένη προσφυγή στις αγορές για την εξεύρεση του υπολειπόμενου ποσού άνω των 8 δισ. δολαρίων, που θα την οδηγήσει κατευθείαν στο bail-in, θα πρέπει να πετύχει από το αμερικανικές αρχές μια γενναία έκπτωση στο πρόστιμο πάνω από 50%, κάτι που όλοι οι αναλυτές αποκλείουν. Σύμφωνα με την JP Morgan, μόνο ένα ο διακανονισμός κυμανθεί στα 3 με 3,5 δισ. δολ. θα μπορέσει η τράπεζα να έχει περιθώριο να καλύψει και άλλα «νομικά ζητήματα».

Η κατάσταση είναι τόσο δύσκολη, ώστε η Deutsche Bank έχει πάρει επαξίως -κάτι ασύλληπτο μέχρι πρόσφατα- τη θέση των ιταλικών τραπεζών στην πρώτη θέση της λίστας επικινδυνότητας!

Περιττό να πούμε ότι η Deutsche Bank είναι ένας από τους παγκόσμιους τραπεζικούς γίγαντες και, αν μπει σε «αστάθεια» και κινδυνεύσει με κατάρρευση, μπορεί να παρασύρει στην άβυσσο τα πάντα. Γι’ αυτό, το ενδεχόμενο μιας τέτοιας εξέλιξης περιγράφεται πλέον στην ευρωπαϊκή και διεθνή αρθρογραφία σαν «Αρμαγεδδώνας».

Ξαναγυρνώντας τώρα στη δήλωση της κ. Μέρκελ, μόνο μια «λογική» μπορούμε να αναγνωρίσουμε σ’ αυτήν: να απευθύνεται στις αμερικανικές αρχές διαμηνύοντας ότι «Εγώ λόγω εκλογών δεν μπορώ να κάνω κάτι. Για να μην ξεσπάσει ο Αρμαγεδδώνας και κινδυνεύσουμε όλοι μαζί, μειώστε δραστικά το πρόστιμο». Ωστόσο, αν η κ. Μέρκελ έχει εκλογές το Σεπτέμβριο, οι ΗΠΑ έχουν εκλογές σε δύο μήνες, με την κ. Κλίντον να πιέζεται ασφυκτικά από τον Ντόναλντ Τραμπ αλλά και από το μέρος του κόμματός της που υποστηρίζει τον Μπέρνι Σάντερς, αντίπαλό της στις εσωκομματικές εκλογές που παραλίγο να της στερήσει το χρίσμα. Υπ’ αυτούς τους όρους, αποκλείεται οι αμερικανικές αρχές να ανταποκριθούν σε μια τέτοια έμμεση έκκληση, ιδιαίτερα μάλιστα όλταν δεν χαρίστηκαν σε αντίστοιχες περιπτώσεις προς τα αμερικανικά τραπεζικά μεγαθήρια…

Ο πολιτικός εγκλωβισμός της κ. Μέρκελ είναι τέτοιος, ώστε μπορεί να βρεθούμε μπροστά στο παράδοξο μιας αντιδικίας μεταξύ ΕΚΤ και Βερολίνου για το θέμα της Deutsche Bank, με τον κ. Ντράγκι να πιέζει για κάποιου είδους στήριξη στην τράπεζα (προκειμένου να αποφευχθεί η τέλεια κατάρρευση του ευρωπαϊκού τραπεζικού συστήματος) και την κ. Μέρκελ να μη συναινεί διότι… έχει εκλογές! Ο παραλογισμός του «Δεν θα πληρώσουν οι φορολογούμενοι τις τράπεζες», ακόμη και αν έρχεται ο «Αρμαγεδδώνας» έχει για τα καλά εδραιωθεί στις συνειδήσεις των Γερμανών ψηφοφόρων, μεταξύ άλλων και με τις προσπάθειες του κ. Σόιμπλε και της κ. Μέρκελ…

Για επίλογο, ας σκεφτούμε λίγο πάνω στο ανατριχιαστικό δεδομένο των ευρωπαϊκών stress tests: η Lehman Brothers χρεοκόπησε με μόχλευση 1:32, ενώ η Deutsche Bank στέκεται ακόμη όρθια παρότι τρίτη στη σχετική ευρωπαϊκή λίστα με μόχλευση 1:105,29!!!! Πάνω από 10 ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες έχουν μόχλευση μεγαλύτερη από της Lehman Brothers, όταν χρεοκόπησε!!!

Με λίγα λόγια: ο κόσμος κάθεται πάνω σε «πυρηνικές βόμβες» και οι ηγέτες… ελπίζουν ότι καμία από αυτές δεν θα πυροδοτηθεί! Μοιρολατρία, αίσθηση παντελούς αδυναμίας ή μήπως πεισιθανάτια ψυχολογία;

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49 απαντήσεις στο “Ο «Αρμαγεδδώνας» λέγεται… Deutsche Bank;”

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